Gaza Mortality Survey — Replication Materials

This repository contains the data and computer code for the paper:

Violent and non-violent death tolls for the Gaza conflict: new primary evidence from a population-representative field survey
Michael Spagat, Jon Pedersen, Khalil Shikaki, Michael Robbins, Eran Bendavid, Håvard Hegre, and Debarati Guha-Sapir
The Lancet Global Health, published February 18, 2026
DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(25)00522-4

The main data were collected in the Gaza Strip between December 30, 2024 and January 5, 2025 in what we have called the Gaza Mortality Survey (GMS).

Note: Earlier versions of this repository contained additional files that are not part of the final published analysis. This repository has been updated to contain only the files needed to replicate the published results.

Files in this Repository

Data Files

GMS Household roster.sav — Individual-level household roster data (9,729 individuals). This is the main analysis file. Key variables:

• prikey — household identifier
• HR00 — governorate of residence (1=North Gaza, 2=Gaza City, 3=Deir al-Balah, 4=Khan Younis, 5=Rafah)
• HR01 — person number within household
• HR03 — age in years
• HR04 — sex (1=Male, 2=Female)
• HR05 — status (1=Resident, 2=Left Gaza, 3=Elsewhere in Gaza, 4=Dead, 5=Missing, 6=Imprisoned)
• HR06 — cause of death (1=Disease with medical aid, 2=Disease without medical aid, 3=Accident, 4=Violent, 5=Unknown)
• HR07 — age at start of war
• PSUID, PSUType — sampling unit identifiers
• Interviewer — interview team identifier (gaza1–gaza10)

GMS Births.sav — Births occurring during the survey period (357 births). Same variable structure as the household roster, with HR03=0 for all births.

Population Gaza Single year age groups IDB_2023.xlsx — Gaza population by single year of age and sex for 2023, downloaded from the US Census Bureau International Data Base (https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/idb/). Two edits were made from the original download: "100+" was changed to "100" in the age group column, and the population column names were simplified to Total, Male, and Female.

Code Files

Gaza_Strip_Mortality_RMD_fixed.rmd — The main analysis file producing all primary estimates in the paper. Run this file in RStudio to replicate the main results. Produces all tables and the sensitivity analysis plot.

Combined various calculations.R — Code for descriptive statistics and supplementary calculations referenced in the paper, including sample demographic tables, infant birth analysis, and raking quality checks.

power_calculations_vary_deaths_by_household.R — Sample size calculations conducted before the survey.

Replicating the Main Results

Requirements

• R
• R packages: tidyverse, haven, survey, gt, webshot2, readxl
• RStudio (recommended)

Instructions

1. Place all data files and Gaza_Strip_Mortality_RMD_fixed.rmd in the same working directory.
2. Open Gaza_Strip_Mortality_RMD_fixed.rmd in RStudio and set that directory as your working directory.
3. Click "Knit" or run the chunks sequentially.

Expected Output

The main model produces results matching the published figures exactly, including:

• 75,200 violent deaths (95% CI 63,600–86,800)
• 16,300 non-violent deaths (95% CI 12,300–20,200)
• 8,540 excess non-violent deaths (95% CI 4,540–12,500)

Data Notes

Privacy: First names (variable HR02 in the original data collection instrument) have been removed from all posted files. An internal interviewer logistics variable (GOVINT) has also been removed as it is not needed for replication.

The 5 missing ages: Five individuals in the roster have missing values for HR03 (age). These rows are dropped before raking and have a negligible effect on the estimates.

Citation

Spagat M, Pedersen J, Shikaki K, Robbins M, Bendavid E, Hegre H, Guha-Sapir D. Violent and non-violent death tolls for the Gaza conflict: new primary evidence from a population-representative field survey. The Lancet Global Health. 2026. DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(25)00522-4